Just 6,370 unprocessed ballots remain to be counted in the five counties affecting contest
Pazin concedes, congratulates Soria in 27th Assembly District race
As of Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022, at 4:59 p.m. the unofficial election results on the California Secretary of State’s website show Republican John Duarte’s lead over Democrat Adam Gray in the 13th Congressional District race has narrowed to 593 votes, a gain of 272 votes by Gray since our last report on Saturday, Nov. 19 when Duarte’s lead was 865 votes. That’s after an additional 58,022 votes were counted in the five counties that the district covers completely or in part. Only 6,370 unprocessed ballots remain in those counties.
It is one of only five Close Contests from throughout the state listed on the website and the only congressional race. It is also only one of the two remaining undecided contests for the U.S. House of Representatives in the nation, including Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District race.
Valley farmer Duarte now has 66,808 votes or 50.2% to local Assemblyman Gray’s 66,215 votes or 49.8% of the vote. While Gray is ahead by 4,384 votes in the portions of the district in his home county of Merced, as well as Stanislaus and San Joaquin counties, Duarte leads by 4,977 votes in Madera and Fresno counties.
According to the CA SOS website, the results are from the “496 of 496 precincts in the district partiallyreporting…since vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be processed and counted after Election Night.”
The Unprocessed Ballot Report on that website shows the results are based on 6,370 ballots remaining to be counted in the five counties. The amount of those ballots within the 13th Congressional District is unknown. Thus, the lead could switch back to Gray, but he would have to garner over 59% of the remaining votes to win. (Please see details, below)
Pazin Concedes in Assembly Race
In another close race affecting Los Banos, Mark Pazin has conceded the election for the 27th Assembly District to Esmeralda Soria.
On Monday, Soria posted a message on her campaign Facebook page thanking her supporters and acknowledging Pazin had called to congratulate her.
She wrote, “Thank you to the hard-working people of the 27th Assembly District for placing your trust in me to be your voice in Sacramento. I am humbled to have the opportunity to fight for you and bring resources home to keep our communities safe and healthy, tackle the housing crisis, create good-paying jobs here at home, and expand educational opportunities for our young people. I am dedicated to having an open door and I will work with anyone from any party or background to deliver for our Valley.
I also want to thank my opponent, Mark Pazin, for a hard-fought race and his congratulatory call. I look forward to working with him.”
Then, in a post on his campaign Facebook page on Tuesday, Nov. 22 Pazin wrote, “It’s been nearly two weeks since Election Day and my opponent and I remain separated by roughly 2,000 votes. Tens of thousands of ballots have been cast in our Assembly race with a few thousand more to count. Unfortunately, it does not appear that we have a path forward based on current trends.
I would like to congratulate Esmeralda Soria on her win as she becomes the Assemblymember-elect for District 27. While we may disagree on many policies and the direction of California, I hope she will serve in the same bipartisan fashion as our outgoing Assemblymember Adam Gray.
This race was never about me or Soria. It was always about putting people first after Sacramento has ignored the needs of our Valley for far too long. Our biggest concerns will not be fixed overnight, nor was Rome built in a day, but it takes the strength of our communities coming together to lift each other up for the greater good.
As we approach Thanksgiving, I’m proud and thankful to have had the honor of campaigning for your vote. I fought to bring attention to the issues of our communities just like I did when I was Sheriff. I could not have made it this far without the help of my supporters, friends, and family. Many of you have known me over the years and some of you may have just met me, and I’m thankful for all of you.
Thank you everyone for putting your trust in me and I wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving.”
Soria now leads Pazin by 2,258 votes an increase of 208 votes since our last report. She now has 45,341 votes or 51.3% to his 43,083 votes or 48.7% of the vote. There are only 2,600 unprocessed votes remaining in Merced, Madera and Fresno counties as of the latest update and they may not all be from within the district.
Secretary of State’s Website Messages
The CA SOS website reads, “Election results will change throughout the canvass period as vote-by-mail ballots, provisional ballots (including conditional voter registration provisional ballots), and other ballots are tallied” and “the Results will be certified by December 16, 2022”. So, the counting will continue.
Results by and Unprocessed Ballots Remaining in Each County:
Merced County as of Nov. 23
Gray 28,0577 or 52.3%
Duarte 26,108 or 47.7%
Difference + 2,469 for Gray
Unprocessed Ballots: 0
Stanislaus County as of Nov. 22 at 8:43 a.m.
Gray 18,222 or 52%
Duarte 16,802 or 48%
Difference +1,419 for Gray
+3,888 cumulative for Gray
Unprocessed Ballots: 0
San Joaquin County as of Nov. 22 at 8:57 a.m.
Gray 4,512 or 52.9%
Duarte 4,016 or 47.1%
Difference: +496 for Gray
+4,384 cumulative for Gray
Unprocessed Ballots: 3,770
Madera County as of Nov. 23
Gray 9,011 or 41.6%
Duarte 12,642 or 58.4%
Difference: +3,631 for Duarte
+753 cumulative for Gray
Unprocessed Ballots: 0
Fresno County as of Nov. 18 at 3:58 pm
Gray 5,893 or 44.9%
Duarte 7,239 or 55.1%
Difference +1,346 for Duarte
+593 cumulative for Duarte
Unprocessed Ballots: 2,600
Please check this website later for the latest updates in these races.
The jocking neck-to-neck campaign race in the 13th district of CA is as good as it gets in the mud wrestling of politics. And kudos to the local newspapers and tv local news for providing the play-by-play of the snail pace vote counts (3 weeks and counting). The news networks on tv gave up on updates on the night of Nov. 9th. And the Media says that viewers have the short attention span. Hardly. The alphabet media only has an appetite for sensationalism, rather than news.
From the vantage view of being a lifetime voter, the race is about an Establishment Democrat (Adam Gray) and a citizen farmer (John Duarte).
Adam is a career politician. John is a businessman. The question is: Who do Voters identify with? It depends on the composition of the citizens. Dems always vote for Freebees. Repubs vote for capitalism.
The other important factor is the issue. Adam has a consistent history of mingling with the voters. He even sponsors gab fests called Townhall Meetings. John, on the other hand, has the advantage of the negative polling of Pres. Joe which remains at below 40% (that is nearly freezing in any Farmer’s Almanac. That cold fact of 60 % rejection occurred in the past 2 years.
Remember, no one has called the race. That means that a winner has not been decided. With that fairness still in play, let me look in my crystal ball to predict the future about who will represent voters.
I will share 1 fact about the criterion for my choice. My guesstimation is based on math. By that, i mean that there have been 2 years of negative press for Dems. It would require a book to list all of them. But the impact is revealed in that poll of only 40% approve of Joe. Yet, on the flip side of the coin is the fact that the Dems outnumber the Repubs. There is the verbal photo that captures our political moment in time.
From this sunshine of my viewpoint, the sundial casts a shadow to favor John Duarte. Yes, the voters are mostly Dems. But that fact only applies to major cities (L.A., S.D., Sac., S.F., & Fresno).
Time will tell if basic math adds up to my forecast about the political climate.
Adam of CA.