Voters in Stanislaus and Merced counties showed less enthusiasm for Proposition 50 than elsewhere in California – to no one’s surprise.
As of Nov. 6, voters throughout the Golden State were embracing the redistricting initiative by nearly 64%, potentially making it easier for Democrats to pick up more U.S. House seats in next year’s midterm elections.
Prop. 50 is California’s answer to President Donald Trump prompting Texas to gerrymander its congressional districts, adding up to five GOP representatives in 2026 – and affecting the House’s balance of power, and by extension, Trump’s reach.
In contrast to most of California, the margin of Prop. 50’s early return “yes” votes in Merced County was less than 53%. And a majority of Stanislaus voters – nearly 51% – voted no.
“Our message resonated with voters. The results speak for themselves,” said Joel Campos, Stanislaus’s Republican Party leader and a participant in a pre-vote debate hosted by The Modesto Focus.
In the 2024 presidential election, more than 54% of Stanislaus voters favored Trump, and in Merced, 50.3%.
It’s possible that the No on 50 campaign pushed harder in the Valley, nearly evenly split between left and right, than in the progressive Bay Area or Southern California, said David Colnic, a Stanislaus State political science professor.
Targeted messaging seems less meaningful in areas that lean heavily to either side, while some in purple areas – both red and blue, like the Valley – might be persuaded.
Party strength shifts from time to time in the northern San Joaquin Valley, with no lasting dominance. Republicans recently made headlines for once again gaining the upper hand in Stanislaus with 400 more registered voters than Democrats, among more than 300,000 total.
‘Valleycrats’ – moderates – thrive in Stanislaus, Merced
“While there are certainly partisans in both (Stanislaus and Merced counties), there is a long history of representatives who have done well by being what we might call `Valleycrats’ who play very moderate roles,” said Nathan Monroe, a UC Merced political science professor.
Examples include former Democratic congressmen Tony Coelho, Gary Condit and Dennis Cardoza and current Rep. Adam Gray of Merced. All have steered toward the middle, at times defying their party – and drawing the ire of its leaders.
“We’re not lock-step voters, here in the Valley,” said political consultant Mike Lynch, a former Condit chief of staff. “We want to do better for our neighborhoods, our schools, our communities and our economic engines. We know some of our interests don’t necessarily march hand-in-hand with other parts of California or the nation.”
Prop. 50’s effects on Stanislaus and Merced counties
By redrawing boundaries for House districts, Prop. 50 could increase California’s Democratic representatives by as many as five next year. None of those districts is in the northern San Joaquin Valley, but shifting lines should make seats safer for some Democrats whose previous elections were close.
That includes Gray, whose 13th District becomes bluer because Prop. 50 adds part of Stockton and Modesto (along with Salida and a portion of north Stanislaus County) while lopping off a red, rural area west of Fresno. He won in 2024 by only 187 votes.
At the same time, Rep. Tom McClintock’s 5th District – already safely red – loses Salida while picking up some conservative neighborhoods east of Modesto and other Valley cities.
In theory, a district losing a bit of purple flavor may nudge politicians on either side further from the middle, said Monroe, who was raised in Hughson. That’s because Gray, for example, could consider the interests of urban San Joaquin County residents more than he used to.
“Now Stanislaus shares more with downtown Stockton than rural Fresno,” Monroe said. “It does affect the constellation of pressure on that congressman.”
Merced County’s representation in the House is less affected by Prop. 50. Ballot counting there is going as expected, said Merced Registrar of Voters Melvin Levey.
While all ballots can be mailed in California, a substantial number of voters in both Merced and Stanislaus County wait until election day – in this case, Nov. 4 – to mail ballots or cast them at drop-off points throughout the county.
These final-day ballots constitute most of those still to be tallied, said Donna Linder, Stanislaus’s registrar and county clerk-recorder. A final count may be weeks away, though results aren’t expected to change and will not affect the overall result in California.
As of Thursday, Merced had 20,180 ballots yet to count, and Stanislaus, 22,075.
In a statement Wednesday, Gray called Texas’s redistricting – not approved by its voters – “undemocratic and dangerous,” and he condemned “partisan gamesmanship.”
Repudiating President Donald Trump
California Republicans feel that voters on the whole were motivated by “Stick it to Trump” talking points rather than taking time to understand how new district lines were drawn in secret rather than by an independent commission, Campos said.
“Taking away democracy to save Democracy? That’s crazy,” he said.
Stan State’s Colnic said Prop. 50 was a political gamble for Gov. Gavin Newsom, widely seen as an early Democratic frontrunner in the 2028 presidential election seeking to increase his national profile. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, or even the most important part of it, Colnic said.
“California has a lot at stake in terms of resources (flowing from) policy,” Colnic said. “If they can flip (to a Democratic majority in the House), it will change some spending policies in the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ and California can get its hands on considerably more resources we’re otherwise liable to lose.
“That’s important to our farmers and universities and to rural communities that depend on Obamacare subsidies to keep hospitals open,” Colnic said. “If the state can claw back some of those resources, California will be in a better place.”
Garth Stapley is the accountability reporter for The Modesto Focus, a project of the nonprofit Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. Contact him at [email protected].
