MERCED, Calif. (August 31, 2025) – A new analysis from CalMatters shows that the California High-Speed Rail Authority is considering changes to its rollout strategy that could leave Merced out of the project’s initial operating segment.
The report, published August 22, 2025, found that the 171-mile Merced-to-Bakersfield line is projected to generate only about 2.2 million riders per year, with passenger revenue of $55.6 million annually. That figure is far below earlier estimates of $156 million per year (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025). Over a 40-year period, the shortfall would translate into a cumulative operating loss of $3.8 billion.
Project costs have also risen. The Central Valley segment extending to Merced is now expected to cost $36.8 billion, up $1.8 billion from earlier estimates, leaving an $8.6 billion funding gap (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025).
By contrast, the analysis notes that extending service north to Gilroy and south to Palmdale could provide stronger links to existing transit networks such as Caltrain in the Bay Area and Metrolink or Brightline West in Southern California. Connecting to those denser corridors could boost ridership and help the system generate up to $98.1 billion in revenue over four decades (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025).
For Merced, the findings highlight an uncertain future. While the city remains part of long-term plans, the revised strategy places a greater emphasis on financial sustainability, raising the possibility that Bay Area connections may be prioritized before completing the promised Merced extension.
