MERCED, CA (August 31 2025) – A new analysis from CalMatters shows that the California High-Speed Rail Authority is weighing a major shift in its rollout strategy that could leave Merced out of the project’s initial operating segment.
The August 22, 2025, report found that the 171-mile Merced-to-Bakersfield line would generate only about 2.2 million riders a year, with projected passenger revenue of $55.6 million annually—far below earlier estimates of $156 million (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025). Over a 40-year span, that shortfall translates into a cumulative operating loss of $3.8 billion, raising doubts about the financial viability of launching service with Merced as a key terminus.
Costs have also surged. The Central Valley segment extending to Merced is now expected to cost $36.8 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion from earlier estimates, with an $8.6 billion funding gap still unresolved (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025).
By contrast, the same analysis notes that extensions north to Gilroy and south to Palmdale could provide stronger connections to existing systems such as Caltrain in the Bay Area and Metrolink or Brightline West in Southern California. Linking the project to these dense transit corridors could boost ridership and help the system achieve up to $98.1 billion in revenue over four decades (CalMatters, Aug. 22, 2025).
For Merced, the findings underscore an uncertain future. While the city remains part of long-term plans, the state’s revised strategy emphasizes financial sustainability, potentially prioritizing Bay Area access before completing the promised Merced connection.
